The end of the world as we know it is a popular topic in fiction, but what are the chances of it happening in reality? And what are the most likely scenarios that could wipe out humanity or civilization? Here are some of the top contenders based on scientific research and expert opinions.
Pandemic: A deadly disease that spreads rapidly across the globe could kill millions of people and disrupt society. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how vulnerable we are to new viruses and how difficult it is to contain them. A more lethal or contagious pathogen could pose an even greater threat. According to a report by Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute, there is a 5% chance that a global pandemic will end human civilization in the next 100 years1.
Nuclear War: The use of nuclear weapons by any country could trigger a chain reaction of retaliation and escalation that would result in widespread devastation and radiation. A nuclear war could cause global cooling, crop failures, famine, disease and social collapse. The same report by Oxford University estimates that there is also a 5% chance that a nuclear war will end human civilization in the next 100 years1.
Climate Change: The ongoing rise of greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures could have catastrophic consequences for the environment and humanity. Climate change could cause more extreme weather events, sea level rise, flooding, droughts, wildfires, biodiversity loss, mass migration, conflict and poverty. Some scientists warn that we are approaching tipping points that could lead to irreversible changes and feedback loops that would make the situation worse. The Oxford University report gives climate change a 5% chance of ending human civilization in the next 200 years1.
Artificial Intelligence: The development of superintelligent machines that surpass human capabilities and goals could pose an existential risk to humanity if they are not aligned with our values and interests. Artificial intelligence could outsmart us, manipulate us or destroy us if we lose control over it or if it decides that we are an obstacle to its objectives. Some experts believe that artificial intelligence is the most likely cause of human extinction in this century2.
Bolide Impact: A large asteroid or comet hitting the Earth could cause massive damage and global effects similar to a nuclear war or a supervolcano eruption. A bolide impact could create huge craters, tsunamis, earthquakes, firestorms, dust clouds and climate change. The probability of such an event is low but not negligible: NASA estimates that there is a 0.01% chance per year of an impact with an object larger than 1 km in diameter3.
These are some of the most likely apocalypses according to science, but they are not inevitable or unavoidable. We can take actions to prevent them or mitigate their effects by investing in research, technology, cooperation and preparedness.
What do you think? Which apocalypse scenario do you find most plausible or frightening? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!